Unemployment duration among immigrants and natives: unobserved heterogeneity in a multi-spell duration model

This paper studies whether the unemployment dynamics of immigrants differ from those of natives, paying special attention to the impact of accounting for unobserved heterogeneity among individuals. Using a large administrative data set for Spain, we estimate multiple-spell discrete duration models which disentangle unobserved heterogeneity from duration dependence. Specifically, we estimate random effects models assuming that the distribution of the effects is discrete with finite support, and fixed effects models in which the distribution of the unobserved effects is left unrestricted. Our results show the importance of accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and that mistaken policy implications can be derived due to improper treatment of unmeasured variables. We find that lack of control for unobserved heterogeneity leads to the conclusion that immigrant males have a higher probability of leaving unemployment than natives and that the negative effect of unemployment benefits for immigrants lasts longer than for natives. Nonetheless, the estimates which do control for unobserved heterogeneity show the opposite results

Temporary help agencies and occupational mobility

This paper focuses upon the effect of Temporary Help Agencies (THAs) on occupational mobility through a comparison of the job-to-job upgrading chances of THA and non-THA workers. A screening approach to the role of these labor "brokers" suggests that agency workers can expect greater upgrading chances between two different occupations. Results obtained from a sample of Spanish workers show that working through these intermediaries allows workers in intermediate occupational levels to avoid occupational demotions more easily than non-THA ones. Moreover, THAs improve the probability for high-skilled workers of achieving a permanent contract. The empirical analysis demonstrates that the existence of self-selection is an important explanation for increased occupational mobility among THA workers in Spain

The nineties in Spain: too much flexibility in the youth labour market?

This paper examines movements into and out of employment in the Spanish youth labour market throughout the nineties. We analyze how differences in personal and economic circumstances influence such movements. In addition, we consider the importance of duration dependence in determining them. Our main findings are that: (i) Very young workers, women and those with lower qualification levels are more likely to be affected by high labour turnover; (ii) The existence of unobserved heterogeneity has important consequences in the unemployment hazard rate; (iii) In the 90's, employment hazard rates were substantially affected by the extensive use of fixed-term contracts, although the 1997 labour market reform seems to have reduced this hazard rate; (iv) The intervention of temporary help agencies has a positive impact on the likelihood of leaving unemployment, although only for short-term unemployed individuals; at the same time, however, the employment hazard rate is substantially higher within these agencies

Are temporary help agencies changing mobility patterns in the Spanish labour market?

This paper examines to what extent Temporary Help Agency intermediation in the labour market affects workers' transitions into and out of employment in the Spanish youth labour market throughout the nineties. Results obtained show that this intermediation presents a positive impact on the likelihood of leaving unemployment, although only for short-term unemployed individuals; at the same time, however, the employment hazard rate is substantially higher for agency workers. We also find that employment hazard rates were substantially affected in the 90's by the extensive use of fixed-term contracts, although the 1997 labour market reform is found to reduce this hazard rate. Finally, very young workers, women and those with lower qualification levels are more likely to be affected by higher labour turnover

Transitions into permanent employment in Spain : an empirical analysis for young workers

We analyze the Spanish temporary workers’ transitions into permanent employment and to what extent those who become unemployed are able to achieve a permanent job. Our focus is placed on the role of the individual’s sequence of temporary contracts on the probability of moving from temporary into permanent employment. We apply multiplespell duration techniques to a longitudinal dataset of temporary workers obtained from Social Security records for the period 1996-2003. We basically find that even though transitions into permanent employment increase with tenure, temporary jobs do not constitute stepping stones towards permanent employment, since the probability of obtaining a permanent job decreases with repeated temporary jobs. Results also show that individuals with high duration of unemployment flow into permanent work less frequently

Unemployment duration among immigrants and natives: unobserved heterogeneity in a multi-spell duration model

This paper studies whether the unemployment dynamics of immigrants differ from those of natives, paying special attention to the impact of accounting for unobserved heterogeneity among individuals. Using a large administrative data set for Spain, we estimate multiple-spell discrete duration models which disentangle unobserved heterogeneity from duration dependence. Specifically, we estimate random effects models assuming that the distribution of the effects is discrete with finite support, and fixed effects models in which the distribution of the unobserved effects is left unrestricted. Our results show the importance of accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and that mistaken policy implications can be derived due to improper treatment of unmeasured variables. We find that lack of control for unobserved heterogeneity leads to the conclusion that immigrant males have a higher probability of leaving unemployment than natives and that the negative effect of unemployment benefits for immigrants lasts longer than for natives. Nonetheless, the estimates which do control for unobserved heterogeneity show the opposite results.Duration models, Discrete choice, Multiple spells, Unobserved heterogeneity, Unemployment, Immigration

Unemployment duration and workers' wage aspirations in Spain

This paper examines unemployed workers' declared willingness to work for a wage lower than the one warranted by their qualification. We analyze which personal and economic characteristics determine this willingness and how it changes as unemployment spells lengthen. Moreover, we also study the influence of this willingness on unemployment duration. The main results are: (i) Young workers, those less educated and those living in regions with high unemployment show a more positive attitude towards accepting lower wages while married women with a working husband show more negative attitudes; (ii) The exhaustion of unemployment benefits has positive effects in the transition probability of the attitude from negative to positive; (iii) The effect of this attitude on the unemployment hazard rate is positive but only marginally significant which may be showing that this willingness is not only reflecting the worker's reservation wage but also some unobserved heterogeneity; (iv) The negative duration dependence of the unemployment hazard rate is substantially reduced when unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for.Willingness to work for lower wages, reservation wage, unemployment duration, unobserved heterogeneity

A model for conservative chaos constructed from multi-component Bose-Einstein condensates with a trap in 2 dimensions

To show a mechanism leading to the breakdown of a particle picture for the multi-component Bose-Einstein condensates(BECs) with a harmonic trap in high dimensions, we investigate the corresponding 2-$d$ nonlinear Schr{\"o}dinger equation (Gross-Pitaevskii equation) with use of a modified variational principle. A molecule of two identical Gaussian wavepackets has two degrees of freedom(DFs), the separation of center-of-masses and the wavepacket width. Without the inter-component interaction(ICI) these DFs show independent regular oscillations with the degenerate eigen-frequencies. The inclusion of ICI strongly mixes these DFs, generating a fat mode that breaks a particle picture, which however can be recovered by introducing a time-periodic ICI with zero average. In case of the molecule of three wavepackets for a three-component BEC, the increase of amplitude of ICI yields a transition from regular to chaotic oscillations in the wavepacket breathing.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure